Papers

Distribution of RMSFE ratios, Chronos-2 vs large BVAR, pre- and post-COVID

Macroeconomics with Foundation Models: Forecasting, Identification, and Structural Scenario Analysis

Working paper. Benchmarks the Chronos-2 time-series foundation model against BVARs for macroeconomic forecasting, structural identification, and scenario analysis.

Orthogonalized USDA yield, harvested area and production revision instruments

Commodity Supply News Shocks: Evidence from Scheduled Announcements

Working paper. Identifies U.S. agricultural supply news shocks from USDA crop yield forecast revisions and traces their effect on activity and inflation.

Largest foreign holders of US long-term bonds, June 2025

Lost in Transmission: Does BOJ Policy Reach US Financial Conditions?

Work in progress. Asks whether Bank of Japan monetary policy shocks transmit to US financial conditions, before and after the December 2022 yield-curve-control change.